Friday, November 5, 2010

Week 9 Picks

A story of Steve Karwatt
Better late than never. 

Record to date

Chicago @ Buffalo

Daugherty - Buffalo +3
I'm conflicted here. Based on the last couple of weeks, I think this has to be the breakthrough game for Buffalo. Buffalo isn't the worst team in the league by any stretch, and I'm definitely not buying that Chicago is a 6 point favorite on a neutral field.

Karwatt - Bills +3
The Bills are due.  They have been playing good teams tough the last 2 weeks.  Fitzpatrick is a huge upgrade over Trent Edwards.  Buffalo has lots of speed at the skill positions, and Steve Johnson is becoming a start.  On the other side Jay Cutler throws the ball to the opposing team better than anybody in the league.  If Cutler doesnt turn it over Chicago will in, unfortunately he will turn it over because that is what he does.

San Diego @ Houston

Daugherty - San Diego -3
The Texans are trying to carry out their normal hot start to finish 8-8 strategy that has managed to keep Kubiak's job so far. If it indeed happens again, this year should be his last.

San Diego is also having plenty of issues. Antonio Gates is unlikely to play so it could be another mix and match day at WR. Regardless, Philip Rivers is going to feast on that secondary

In the end, the Texans couldn't beat a Colts team that was in much worse shape than the Chargers and they let Mike freaking Hart run all over them. I'm going with another 8-8 season

Karwatt - Forfeit
I'm incapable of filling out a full slate of picks

UPDATE: Karwatt takes SD -3

New Orleans @ Carolina

Daugherty - New Orleans -6.5
Even though New Orleans could barely beat the Panthers at home last time they played, Carolina is just too bad for me to ever bet on them. It'll be much more interesting if Brees decides to continue turning the ball over, and New Orleans fans and media are forced to come up with more injury rumors.

Karwatt - New Orleans -6.5
The Saints defense came to life last week.  The Panthers are horrendous.  This has the makings of a blow out.

Arizona @ Minnesota

Daugherty - Minn -7.5
Arizona has been a terrible road team so far this season. Vikings are out to make everyone forget about the cancer they just got rid of, and they make a statement this week.

Karwatt - Arizona -7.5
Minnesota is a mess, Arizona is just as bad.  I expect Minnesota to win this game by a touchdown.  So take the Cardinals and 7.5 points.

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta

Daugherty - Atlanta -9
As much as I like this Bucs team, they have shown that they aren't ready to run with the big dogs by being dismantled by the only two good teams they have played. Atlanta at home is just as good as, and probably better than, Pittsburgh or New Orleans.

Karwatt - Atlanta -9
I hate to pick against the Bucs.  But, consider this.....The Bucs are 5-2. They have played two good teams (New Orleans, and Pitt) and got blown off the field both times.  Matty Ice and Roddy White in the dome are hard to stop.  I like Aquib Talib, the guy is a stud, but the Bucs can't stop the run.  Lagarret Blount is giving them a spark in the running game, but the Falcons are too much in the dome.

N.Y. Jets @ Detroit

Daugherty - Detroit +4
Detroit has nine more sacks this year than the Jets D. With Sanchize at the helm, that's bad news for the Jets. Plus, the Lions are 6-1 against the spread this year. Count me in.

Karwatt - Detroit +4
The Jets and their terrible quaterback aren't as good as their record says they are.  The Lions are better than their record says.  Revis has not lived up to the hype, and here comes Megatron (Calvin Johnson).  This will be a really close game, and could go either way.  Big Suh might break LT in half then eat Sanchez's lunch. The Lions pull off the upset.

Miami @ Baltimore

Daugherty - Miami +5.5
As Brandon Marshall said, this is the Dolphins' defining moment as a team. Without a win here, it would take a miracle to make the playoffs given how the AFC is shaking out.

Karwatt - Miami +5.5
5 points C'mon man!! Isnt this the same Baltimore team that needed OT to beat Buffalo? The same Joe Flacco that pulled off an epic choke job against New England when he had three chances to win the game with a score?  Miami is 4-0 on the road, and their defense played awesome last week. If Dan Henning grows a pair and throws the ball downfield, and allows Henne to make a couple big plays, Miami should not only cover but win the game. Dear Chad Henne, from all of us waiting for you to take the next step in your growth and stop being average here is your chance, if you win this game you are 5-3 and back in the playoff race.  Miami covers the 5 and Dan Carpenter is the hero in a Fins victory.

New England @ Cleveland

Daugherty - Cleveland +4.5
New England may have the best record in the league, but they are much worse on the road. Cleveland is putting it all together, and if they can negate the Pats running game, they can handle Brady.

Karwatt - Cleveland -4.5
The Browns are getting better, and they have looked pretty good lately.  However, New England will find a way to win a close one and cover the 5 points.  The Patriots offense isnt as explosive without Moss, but they seem to do enough and catch all the breaks every week. 

N.Y. Giants @ Seattle

Daugherty - NYG -7
Seattle holds one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL, but they are just too banged up to handle the Giants. Whitehurst is making his first NFL start, and to make matters worse, the injuries to both LTs have forced a Guard to move to LT. Not a recipe for success when facing a fearsome pass rush.

Karwatt - NYG -7
The G men are getting it together for a playoff push. They are the best team in the NFC for my money.  Pete Carrol and Seattle have surprised me this year, but they layed an egg last week. Giants shouldn't have any trouble with the Seahawks.

Kansas City @ Oakland

Daugherty - OAK -2.5
In a game with huge playoff implications, Oakland will bring plenty of ferocity to the table. This KC team has had some recent struggles while Oakland has blown out their last two opponents. In what is a matchup of evenly matched teams, I'll take the one at home.

Karwatt - OAK -2.5
Im done riding KC. 5-0 betting with them this year, but they looked awful last week.  Their defense is really good and has a lot of young studs, but Cassel sucks.  How can they not score a lot of points with D Bowe, Jamal Charles, and TJ? Because their QB isn't any good.  How he fooled so many NFL teams after putting up numbers as a product of a syatem in NE like Brady, baffles me.

Indianapolis @ Philadelphia

Daugherty - Indianapolis +3
Strangely enough, this is the first time the Colts have been underdogs this season. I know Andy Reid is undefeated in his career with the Eagles when coming off a bye, but this should be his first loss. A team with a marginal running game and a QB prone to taking hits? Freeney and Mathis are licking their lips.

By the way, Clint Session is the man. He fractured his forearm and dislocated his elbow making a tackle during the Texans game. The amazing part? He came back in the game and finished it.

Karwatt - Indianapolis +3
 I dont care who is playing qb for Philly.  He cant be half as good as the guy playing qb for Indy. Manning is the best, and the Colts are better than Philly and any other team in the NFC.

Dallas @ Green Bay

Daugherty - Green Bay -7.5
Dallas has given up. Maybe Kitna tries hard, but the defense has mailed it in. But, hey, at least Wade Phillips is safe as head coach for the rest of the season.

Karwatt - Green Bay -7.5
Dallas has given up, they are a bunch of quitters just like their coach.

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati

Daugherty - Pitt -5
Once again, Carson Palmer throws another two INTs that the defense just decided not to catch. One of those ended up bouncing off the DB's hands and ended up being caught by T.O. for a TD. Don't see that happening this week.

Karwatt - Cincinnati +5
I have a weird feeling Pitt isn't as good as we thought they were.....

Daugherty - Miami +5.5
Karwatt - Saints -6.5