Wednesday, October 20, 2010

NFL Week 7 Picks

Welcome to the first week of our NFL picks. Every week Karwatt and I will pick each game with the spread, and whoever has the worst record at the end of the year will be subject to ridicule and scorn. Bill Simmons eat your heart out.

Before we get started, we would like to wish Big N. Mike a happy birthday. One of our first followers, and a true pimp indeed. Mike, you'll like the Lock(e) of the week for sure. 

Pittsburgh @ Miami
Daugherty - Pittsburgh -3 
Pittsburgh is the best team in football now that Roethlisberger is back. To win this game, Henne is going to have to come through a few times, and I just don’t see that happening. [Insert bathroom stall joke here]
Karwatt - Miami +3
Miami has yet to play a complete game, and they have left a ton of points on the board. Pitt's D is tough, but Cameron Wake and Co. should be able to get to Ben a little bit, who cant be in midseason form in just his second start.  Mia is 0-2 at home and 3-0 on the road, time for that to change.  Plus, homer pick go Fins

Cincinnati @ Atlanta
·         Daugherty - Atlanta -3
      This line doesn’t make sense to me. Cincinnati is not Atlanta’s equal on a neutral site. Bill Simmons made the point around Week 4 that if they kept stats for dropped interceptions, Carson Palmer would lead the league. Then teams started catching those mistakes and the Bengals began showing their stripes. Combine that with the fact that I truly believe ATL is one of the best teams in the NFC, even after last week, and you have a lock at ATL -3
KarwattAtlanta -3 
Cincy has been brutal, and Carson has looked terrible.  Matty Ice is good in the dome, so expect a bounce back win by them this week.

Philadelphia @ Tennessee
·        Daugherty - Philly +3 
      Kolb starting is the right decision. If only he had some pit bull pictures to distract his competition with.....but I digress. He’s a stud, and the loss of DeSean Jackson doesn’t really hurt him since he and Jackson never looked on the same page to me. Tennessee is coming off a Monday night game, and they have big question marks at QB. Look for Tennessee to make up for this by trying to injure as many Eagles as possible with their dirty tactics.

·         Speaking of Tennessee, has there ever been a worse Monday Night Football game than this past one? Yet, I watched almost every snap praying for Chris Johnson to do something to save my fantasy team. It only took a meaningless 4th and 5 for him to finally break a TD run and save my week. Fantasy football is the only explanation for that terrible game having higher ratings than an epic Cliff Lee performance in the ALCS. Either that, or baseball is dead.
      Karwatt - Tennessee +3
      This is a coin flip, and I would stay away. However, i would jump on that over expect Kevin Kolb to put up points, and CJ to breakout. Slight edge to Tennessee because i like their pass rush, and the AFC is the better conference.

Washington @ Chicago
·         Daugherty - Chicago -3
      This just in. Washington is bad. They got shredded by a Colts running game that  never shreds anyone. On the other side of the ball, Ryan Torain ran a 4.71 40 at the combine, but he looks like he is even slower. Don’t expect the Bears D to bounce off of him like the Colts did. 
      Karwatt - Washington +3
      Have you seen Chicago's o line??  Washington shouldn't be the underdog in this game. There is too much credit given for home field advantage. Kick away from Hester, and Washington should be fine

Cleveland @ New Orleans
·         DaughertyCleveland +13 
      Cleveland is not that bad. The thought of starting Colt McCoy scares me a bit, but then I look back and see that the Saints are 1-5 against the spread and all is better. Plus, anything Max Hall can do, Colt McCoy can do better.
      Karwatt - Cleveland +13
      Cleveland isnt as bad as they played last wek...Feed Hillis and they should shorten the game and lose by a td or so, covering the spread.

Buffalo @ Baltimore
      Daugherty - Baltimore -13
            Has Buffalo shut it down yet? They should
      Karwatt - Not sold on joe Flacco. An emotional loss last week for the Ravens and Buffalo coming off a bye is a recipe for the game to be closer than expected. Of course Buffalo still loses.

San Francisco @ Carolina
Daugherty - San Francisco -3
I don’t really like this pick because San Francisco just isn’t as good as they should be. However, Carolina is even worse. Won’t be watching this game or betting on it.
Karwatt - Carolina is just really bad.  San Fran thinks they can still win that division, which they might...Alabama and Oregon might win that division, Frank Gore should have a huge day, and as long Alex Smith doesn't play terrible they will be fine.

St. Louis @ Tampa Bay
·         DaughertyTampa Bay -3
      Tough one. I really like this Tampa team, and I think they do just enough to win this game.
      Karwatt - St. Louis +3
      Bucs worst rush defense in the NFL, Steven jackson coming to town...Not a good recipe.  Josh Freeman can make some plays, but the Bucs dont stand a chance of stopping Steven Jackson.  Another note, the Bucs' starting RB is averaging around 2 yards per carry. They need to get Lagarret Blunt involved because Cadillac looks broken down

Arizona @ Seattle
·         DaughertySeattle -5.5
      Do you really expect Max Hall to go into the biggest home-field advantage in the NFL and succeed? Seattle at home is a different team as SF and San Diego found out. Plus, Pete Carrol is really adjusting well to having a salary cap. I wasn't sure he'd make the transition this quickly.
      Karwatt - Seattle -5.5
      Somehow Pete Carrol has the boys playing well, Hasselbeck looks pretty good.  Arizona not so much

New England @ San Diego
·         DaughertySan Diego -3
     In a game of QBs I truly hate, I will be rooting for Rivers to score me some fantasy points. The Pats suck on the road, and the Chargers have to play a good game eventually……right? 
      Karwatt - New England +3
      SD cant beat anyone.  I guess the logic behind this spread is that they have to start wnning at some point...Actually they don't.  However, it will be a close game. Phil Rivers and Malcom Floyd against the Pats secondary should yield quite a few points, but look for SD to find a way to lose late.

Oakland @ Denver
·         Daugherty - Denver -8.5 
      Jason Campbell or Kyle Boller? Does it really matter? Until Gradkowski comes back, I won’t be betting on Oakland.
      Karwatt - Who cares. Hopefully Oakland wins so the Pats don't get Mark Ingram with their first round pick next year.

Minnesota @ Green Bay
·         DaughertyMinnesota +2.5
      It might break GB’s hearts, but they are just too banged up to win this game. Favre tones down his celebratory text messages
      Karwatt - GB -2.5
      It is do or die time for GB. Favre will find charles woodson at some point. Slow down AP enough to make Favre throw a pick or two and let Rogers throw it all over the field.

New York Giants @ Dallas
o        DaughertyDallas -3.5
       Dallas evens up the celebration penalties to Wins ratio.
      Karwatt - Giants +3.5
      G-Men looking like the G-Men of 2008. They are rushing the passer, and Eli is minimizing mistakes....Dallas is Dallas. Romo will make some mistakes, and Wade Phillips will have his lack of discipline spilling over with more penalties.

Daugherty - ATL -3
Karwatt - ATL -3

1 comment:

  1. 11-0-1 wow. Soon vegas will come calling and I may have to take my expertise elsewhere, at the expense of our many followers. If only I bet on more than just my lock of the week (Atl -3) i would be a rich man