Thursday, October 28, 2010

Week 8 Picks

Last week didn’t go too well. My picks on teams to win weren’t that far off, but when they did win, they missed covering. Time to redeem myself

                       Daugherty                   Karwatt
Last Week:          3-9-1                      11-0-2
Season Total:      3-9-1                      11-0-2

San Francisco vs. Denver in London

Daugherty - DEN +1 
No matter how badly Denver got beaten, this is a terrible 49ers team that is now going to be starting Troy Smith. Carolina carved up SF via the air, and Denver’s strength is the passing game. Yet somehow the 49ers are one point favorites at a neutral site.

Karwatt - SF -1
I <3 Singletary

Jacksonville @ Dallas

Daugherty - Jacksonville +6.5
Every time I watch Jacksonville play I wonder how they turn into a dominant force twice a year when they play the Colts. I guess the Colts are their Super Bowl. John Kitna is a solid backup, but can you really bet on a Dallas team led by him to cover in his first week as a starter? I don’t.

Karwatt - Jacksonville +6.5
Two bad teams.  John Kitna may in fact lead the Cowboys to a victory, but not by more than 6 points.  Dallas is bad, but they may win a game now since it is meaningless.  Jacksonville has shown some signs of life.  Look for a close game Jax covers.

Washington @ Detroit

Daugherty - DET -2.5
I keep saying Washington isn’t that good. Well, let’s put it this way, if the opposing QB throws you the ball 4 times it helps to cover a lot of flaws. Don’t expect that to happen, and Detroit is much better than a normal 1-5 team.

Karwatt - DET -2.5
Detroit coming off a bye, and getting better every week, Calvin Johnson cant be stopped.  D Mcnabb has been as inaccurate as ever, and Ryan Torrain doesn't put fear in the opposing defense.

Green Bay @ N.Y. Jets

Daugherty - NYJ -6
The normal betting issues that come up here are the Jets coming off a bye and the Packers having a short week. Revis says he is 100% healthy, and I’m inclined to trust him. He takes away one weapon for Aaron Rodgers, and the IR already took away Finley. That doesn’t leave them with much on offense. If there is one issue with Rodgers in his career, it has been his tendency to not get rid of the football in time to avoid sacks. Well, you can bet that Rex Ryan will be putting pressure on him all night, and it could get ugly.

Karwatt - GB +6
Green Bay coming off a big time MNF win. Jets off a bye.....Advantage Jets right?? Wrong. Mark Sanchez is the most overrated player in the NFL.  He finally showed his true colors last week simply because defenses stopped dropping the balls thrown at them, and caught a couple. The Jets have a ton of talent, but that defense hasnt been as good as advertised.  I know Green Bay is banged up and Revis is back.  But look for Sanchez to throw a couple picks

Carolina @ St. Louis

Daugherty - STL -3
When your QB compares winning your first game with the champagne celebrations that went on after the MLB League Championship Series it isn’t a good sign. They’re just happy to not be winless. Bradford struggled a bit last week, but Carolina is just awful.

Karwatt - STL -3
Carolina won last week so that means they wont win another one for a while.  I like Sam Bradford, and this Rams team.  They lost a tough one last week, but look for them to bounce back.

Miami @ Cincinnati

Daugherty - Miami +1.5
I want to take the Bungles here, but I just can’t. Their secondary is too thin to deal with Brandon Marshall, and I think that determines the game. Carson Palmer heard my criticism last week and went off, but even that wasn’t enough to keep them from losing.

Karwatt - Miami +1.5 
After a hard fought win over Pittsburgh.....oh wait thats right the all-powerful referees of the NFL blew another call.....After a tough loss at home look for my Fins to go 4-0 on the road with a win at Cincinatti.  Cincy's offense looked like it finally got going last week, and Palmer looked better.  Miami is a better team.  If they address the red zone issues they will stop leaving points on the field and pull away from teams.  Look for more shots down the field to Marshall this week.  Miami will not only cover but win the game by 3.  If they don't I have a nice customized Dolphins hoodie for sale along with some other memorabilia.  In other words if they lose this one, it's draft mode

Buffalo @ Kansas City

Daugherty - KC -7.5
Guess who is ranked 2nd in passer rating coming into Week 8? If you guessed Harvard boy, Ryan Fitzpatrick, pat yourself on the back. Of course the 3rd ranked passer is Vince Young so I guess you can take that with a grain of salt. Coming off a heartbreaking loss, I just don’t see this being Buffalo’s week. That week is coming though.

Karwatt - KC -7.5
Buffalo had their chance for a win last week, over Baltimore which would have been great.  I think this game will be rather close.  But, like i said last week, I am now 5-0 this year betting with KC why stop now?? Vegas is finally starting to vlue them a little higher.  After they cover this week I may have to get off the KC bettingwagon

Tennessee @ San Diego 

Daugherty - Tenn +3.5
This is a tough one for me, but I will not be choosing SD until they actually prove me wrong. I like this game better if Collins plays because Vince will find a way to suck if he gets the start.

Karwatt - SD -3.5
I hate to do this but San Diego has to win at some point!  They also outplayed New England last week, had a couple bonehead mistakes, and missed a FG by a couple inches at the end of the game.  San Diego gets off the mat and wins by a TD.

Tampa Bay @ Arizona

Daugherty - Bucs +3
You’re telling me the Bucs and Cardinals are evenly matched on a neutral site? Please. This line makes no sense to me. Max Hall was so bad that they had to put Derek Anderson back in, and that tells you all you need to know. Plus, Josh Freeman is legit.

Karwatt - Bucs +3
Arizona is terrible, the Bucs are starting to buy in to raheem, and Freeman makes plays.  I like the Bucs to win this game.  Well, unless Kurt Warner makes his return this week. As JC would say "GO BUCS"

Seattle @ Oakland

Daugherty - Oak -2.5 
I know that Oakland is probably a bit overrated after their dismantling of Team Tebow last weekend, but Seattle is so much better at home than on the road. Oakland has plenty of talent, and as much as I hate Jason Campbell, a healthy Run DMC is a force to be reckoned with. I won’t have him on my bench in fantasy again this week, that’s for certain.

Karwatt - Sea +2.5
Marshawn Lynch can run me over in his car and flee the scene any time he wants.

Minnesota @ New England

Daugherty - NE -6.5
NE is faced with the prospect of facing either a banged up Favre or Tarvaris Jackson. They are probably hoping for Favre as surprising as that may sound. Either way, New England’s weakness is their pass defense, and it doesn’t look like Minnesota is going to be able to take advantage of that. Look for Brady to offer Favre a “How to Get Hollywood Actresses Seminar” like he offered Terrell Suggs. This just in, Favre was doing it all wrong.

 Karwatt - Minn +6.5
Changing my last name to Sterger for luck

Pittsburgh @ New Orleans

Daugherty - Pitt +1
This is the type of game that New Orleans is likely to win. It doesn’t make sense, but the Saints normally get up for big games at home. However, you also have the Atlanta game that disproves that to an extent. The fact of the matter is, the Steelers are just a lot better than the Saints. Drew Brees has thrown 10 Ints through seven games (He threw 11 all year in 2009), and he is making terrible decisions left and right. The Saints just can’t afford to do that against the Steelers. As I write this, Billy Shaughnessy and Kenny Human are packaging up some Oxycodone to send to Sean Payton. We’ll see if it works.

Karwatt - Pitt +1
Steelers over Saints  I want to pick the Saints so bad, but I just can't do it.  The Steelers are just better than the Saints on offense and on defense...

Houston @ Indianapolis

Daugherty - Indy -5.5
Hate this line. Colts are banged up, and are playing the team that dominated them on the ground in Week 1. It’s Jacob Tamme and Anthony Gonzalez time in Indy, but if anyone can make it work, it’s Peyton Manning. On a side note, are white pass catchers the new market inefficiency? The Colts are loaded with them.
In the end, take Peyton Manning in a night game. He’s 22-3 since 2005.

Karwatt - Indy -5.5 
Peyton at night.  Houston is up and down, and I think Peyton and the Colts owe them a little something.

Daugherty - TB +3
Karwatt - I will complain about Instant Replay

1 comment:

  1. looks like some pretty solid picks. glad you both wised up with josh freeman. thanks for the shout out sota boy. go bucs!!!! love both picks for "locke of the week"