The Widespread Impact of the Cliff Lee Signing

At this point, Cliff Lee is the second

best pitcher on his team. However, 

he's also the second best pitcher

in baseball.

With Cliff Lee being traded to the Phillies, the attention now turns to the impact the deal will have around the league.

Before we launch into that, one has to ask the question.....How in the world does Ruben Amaro, the Phillies' GM, pull of heists like this and the Halladay deal and turn around and make horrendous moves like trading Lee in the first place for a bunch of nothing, signing Howard to one of the worst deals in baseball history, and the Ibanez signing? Given his tendency to strike out while also hitting some huge HRs, Amaro should now be known as the Mark Reynolds of Major League GMs.

Now, into the range of impacts....

First, how does the trade affect the Phillies? Obviously their starting rotation goes from one of the best in baseball to possibly the best of all time, but this team is flawed beyond the rotation. A team that faced a massive struggle to score runs throughout the year at times, especially in the postseason, has now lost its best hitter from last year and has become lefty heavy. Teams with dominant left-handed pitching will be able to exploit that weakness extremely effectively. Losing their only power bat from the right side could have a huge impact on an opposing manager's bullpen strategy. Combine that with the fact that the lineup is getting old in a hurry, and you have to wonder just how much of a window is left. An interesting point from Keith Law this morning was whether the Phillies should trade Hamels for a right handed bat for the middle of the order. That deal makes a good bit of sense when you consider that having a dominant fourth starter in the playoffs is almost a waste given how few games that pitcher would start. A big right-handed bat could offset much of the offensive worries that have to be trailing the Phillies front office right now.

If they decide to keep the four starters, the Phillies must focus their attention on clearing up some payroll for the hefty contract that Lee has added to the books. It is being reported that they are close to a deal that would send Blanton to the Red Sox (Did the Red Sox offer to take him last night in order to keep Lee from the Yankees?), and if they can somehow get a team to take Ibanez, that would be ideal. If not, they have some big contracts coming off the book next year. Ibanez is gone, and we will probably be seeing the last of Rollins in a Phillies uniform this year. It will be interesting to see how they handle the next few days, and how they groom the replacements for their aging pieces.

The biggest loser in the deal has to be the Yankees. They have watched the Red Sox make two major moves and vastly improve their team, all the while thinking they were going to counter with Cliff Lee. There will probably be a sense of desperation in the Yankees front office as they search for some rotation help. Would Zack Greinke fit the bill? It would cost them their best prospect and much more, but I wouldn't put it past them. You have to think that the Marlins would at least entertain offers for Josh Johnson since it would be foolish not to at least listen.

The Rangers may have actually dodged a bullet by not signing Lee. For a franchise that once offered A-Rod 250 million, they have to have been at least a little gun shy about offering a 31 year old pitcher 160 million over seven years. Now that Lee is leaving, they get the Phillies' first round pick, and some payroll flexibility should the right deal drop in their lap.

All in all, this will be a fun few weeks as we watch the puzzle pieces fall into place.

Stunning Upset

Reports have Cliff Lee's camp telling both Rangers and Yankees he is signing with Phillies. Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Oswalt? Probably the best staff ever put together.

What was mainly a two horse race between the Yankees and Rangers led the ninja Ruben Amaro swoop in and take Lee out of nowhere. This has got to kill the Yankee faithful as they just came up empty-handed as their arch-rivals made huge splashes with the Crawford and Gonzalez signings.

Contract terms aren't known, but it is widely believed that Lee took less money to go to Philly. The Yankees were offering 7/150 so my best guess would probably be 5/100 or 6/120. The key question is how the Phillies plan to afford that after throwing money down the Ryan Howard toilet. Time will tell.

UPDATE: Sources saying that Lee left $50 million on the table. Wow. In the "take the money" age, this is quite a shocking development. I expect the Yankees to make a strong push for Zack Greinke now.

Week 14 Picks

If you read Bill Simmons' column, you'll note that his picks always go downhill when he starts having his book tours. Well, I think you can apply that to me too. Whenever exams start up, it's usually not a good sign for my picks.

Karwatt - SO I had a bad week last week.....But I wasn't the only one.  I offer you this. http://football.cbssports.com/splash/football/spln/opc/free.   I was still better than the "experts"

Oakland vs. Jacksonville

Daugherty - Jacksonville -4.5

I will be rooting for this pick to be wrong. If Jacksonville loses, they basically have to beat the Colts next week to get in the playoffs.That being said, this is one of those games. Oakland is going to the East Coast to play a 1 p.m. game, and they haven't been great on the road at all. All signs point to a Jaguars cover....Sadly.

Karwatt - Oak +4.5

This is the week Oakland shows up on the road.  I expect a close game.

Cincinnati vs. Pittsburgh

Daugherty - Cincy +8.5

Backdoor cover for the win. Cincinnati put up a hell of a fight last week against New Orleans. Not surprisingly, they did something incredibly stupid to blow the game. 

Karwatt - Cincy +8.5 

Cincy knows how to make games close and still lose.  Pitt knows how to sneak out close wins.  I expect it to happen again Cincy covers.

New England vs. Chicago

Daugherty - Chicago +3

How can anyone pick against New England? Well, when I combine Soldier Field's bad turf and a forecast with a low of eight degrees, wind gusts up to 60 mph, and snow, I'm going to go with the better defense. Tom Brady doesn't have Adam Vinatieri to make a ridiculous FG to win the game. Plus, it's a short week coming off a huge game.

Karwatt - NE -3

How can anyone pick against Ne right now.  That is,  unless they are due for a road let down, and that could definitely happen.  Im still picking NE.

Buffalo vs. Cleveland

Daugherty - Cleveland +1

I love this game. Cleveland has been incredibly good in recent weeks, and again, the forecast is awful for the game. I'll take the Vanilla Gorilla (Peyton Hillis) in the snow over a Buffalo team that is more of a passing attack. Karwatt may think the Browns suck, but the Bills give up around 170 rushing yards per game. The Dolphins don't. 

Karwatt - Buffalo -1

I watched the whole Cleveland game last week as they beat my lowly Dolphins.  They arent very good, Delhomme sucks, and the Vanilla Gorilla is a beast not a big play guy though.

Minnesota vs. New York Giants

Daugherty - Minnesota +3

Given all of the travel difficulties, I'm taking the Vikings. 

Karwatt - Minnesota +3

Leslie Frazier has Minnesota balling.  Hopefully Tavaris jackson plays because he gives them the best chance to win.

Green Bay vs. Detroit

Daugherty - GB -7

Since my fantasy teams are all dominating and in the playoffs, I don't really need Greg Jennings to go off. That being said, he will.

Karwatt - GB -7

Green Bay looks really good.  They have been covering and making me some money lately, and i expect them to do it again.

Atlanta vs. Carolina

Daugherty - ATL -7

Carolina sucks.

Karwatt - ATL -7

Carolina has Andrew Luck in their sights.  They are a terrible football team, and ATL should dominate.

Tampa Bay vs. Washington

Daugherty - Washington +2

Going with the cold weather trend, I'm not going to take the team that just lost its best DB and its starting center. Not to mention that they have a history of being terrible in cold weather. I think they're due for a letdown after the crushing defeat last week.

Karwatt - TB -2

The skins suck the BUCS need to bounce back, Im still on the Bucs bandwagon, and the driver (JCD) better keep it between the lines because we're losing some passengers.

St. Louis vs. New Orleans

Daugherty - STL -8

That's a lot of points to give a good team that is also built to play in domes.

Karwatt - STL -8

The Rams are playing pretty good football.  They should hang in this one.

Seattle vs. San Francisco

Daugherty - Seattle +5

San Francisco just needs to get rid of Singletary and shut it down.

Karwatt - Seattle +5

If someone with the last name of Smith starts for San Francisco, they arent very good. 

Miami vs. New York Jets

Daugherty - NYJ -5.5

Miami is a great road team, but I think the beatdown last week will wake up the Jets. They needed some humble pie, and it just might be what sparks them to play their best football.

Karwatt - Mia +5.5

I know I pick Mia every week bc im a homer, but i expect them to win this one. The Jets were exposed last week, and we saw Sanchez for the below average media creation he is.  Unfortunately, Henne is even worse......Go Dolphins

Denver vs. Arizona

Daugherty - Denver -4.5

The "don't bet against a team with a new coach" corollary is in full effect here. That and that Skelton is starting for Arizona. 

Karwatt - Denver-4.5 over I expect Denver to score some points, and I wouldnt bet on Arizona no matter who they played...Unless it was Carolina.

San Diego vs. Kansas City

Daugherty - SD -7

The only reason I'm picking SD here is that Cassel is probably going to be out. Here's an interesting read on the supposed MVP candidate Philip Rivers. 

Karwatt - SD-7 

I believe last week was a fluke for San Diego  This is a must win, and Ill take the better qb hoping they can win by more than a td...

Philadelphia vs. Dallas

Daugherty - Dallas +3.5

Asante Samuel and Winston Justice are both out. Rest assured, it's going to be a shootout. 

Karwatt - Philly -3.5 This is a tough one. Dallas has been playing well.  I expect Philly to make too many big plays and win a close one.

Houston vs. Baltimore

Daugherty - Baltimore -3

Has anyone seen Houston's defense? It's horrendous. 

Karwatt - Hou +3  

Nothing makes me more angry than media created qbs.  Enter Joe Flacco. I watch him choke time after time in big games.  Him and Sanchez have won some games because they are on good teams, but they are both average at best.

Locke of the week

Daugherty - Cleveland +1

Karwatt - Atlanta -7 

Self-Serving and Inconsistent.....Meet the NCAA

The NCAA's ruling continues to confuse even those who have worked as an NCAA investigator. The Big Ten commissioner was formerly an investigator so obviously he knows the ins and outs of the NCAA rules and methodology. Yet, even he is miffed at the NCAA's decision to bypass a chance to nip this situation in the bud. One thing is clear, the NCAA can and does interpret its own rules however it pleases. What they did here was to allow a loophole to be created by their own action (or inaction). As is stated in this argument, it's laughable that the NCAA decided to hide behind the letter of the law (It's debatable that they even did it correctly) in this case while not bothering to take that approach in other cases. It truly comes down to this, having a cash-cow in the BCS title game caused the NCAA to make the decision to address the rules with a later amendment when they could have put a stop to it right now.

Even better, the SEC decides to take the exact opposite approach to its own bylaws as reported here. The SEC commissioner instead looks at his own personal beliefs and opinions when making the decision. Then he does an incredibly poor job of explaining it. There are self-serving motives in play all around this case to the point that the two governing bodies involved decide to take opposite approaches to hide behind. All for what? $$$$$$.

We all love a good conspiracy theory. So here's a very interesting possibility. I've heard multiple sources close to the investigation state that the NCAA hasn't finished interviewing all of the parties involved, and no mention has been made of the biggest issue so far. The phone call that Cam was reported to have made where he said that he was sorry for not coming to MSU, but "the money was just too much." Well, that article poses a very fascinating possibility.

Lastly, one issue continues to drive me crazy. Cam Newton has admitted that Cecil played a big role in the decision to go to Auburn. Cam broke off his agreement with MSU in mid-December, and it took all of two weeks before he had committed to Auburn. If Cecil is asking for 180k from MSU, and gets rebuffed, it makes no sense that he rushed Cam to commit to Auburn two weeks later for free. Does anyone outside of Auburn fans really believe that Cecil just decided to give up on his money aspirations that quickly? Add in Cecil's church magically coming up with enough funds to renovate it and save it from being condemned after Cam's commitment, and it just seems impossible that all of these things happened by coincidence.

Another ESPN Writer Mails It In and Week 13 Picks

By now, I'm sure many of you have read Greg Easterbrook's TMQ column on ESPN. His opening salvo is directed towards the Colts, and he attempts to weed out the truth behind their struggles, etc. Unfortunately, like many recent ESPN writers, he mails in the actual research and analysis. Luckily, one of the best Colts blogs around takes Easterbrook to task here.


When I first read this edition of the TMQ, the statement that Peyton Manning isn't good when the defense is putting pressure on him really pushed my buttons. I was certain it was a ridiculous statement, and luckily, the same blog completely skewered that attempt at analysis. Take a look here. Just as I suspected, Peyton is at the top of the league when under pressure. 


Andre Johnson was actually mic'd up at the time of his fight last week. It seems like they edited out some of the audio during the fight, but it's still worth a listen.

A couple more mic'd up youtube videos.

This one is probably the best mic'd up I've ever seen. I gained a new respect for Matthew Stafford.

Pretty funny Peyton Manning video (sorry about the quality) from when he and Saturday got into it during the Rams game a few years ago.


I'll begin with the Thursday night game, but we'll update the rest of the picks later in the week.
Texans vs. Eagles
Daugherty - HOU +9
This one is tough, but I feel like Houston can keep it close enough thanks to Asante Samuel being out. In other news, I'm happy that Andre Johnson beat the hell out of Finnegan, but I agree with Karwatt when he says that $25,000 for fighting is a joke when Jerome Harrison gets fined $75,000 for a hard hit. 
Karwatt - HOU +9 
Look Mike Vick is great, but he isnt superman.  The Texans offer another terrible secondary for Vick to shred, but Hpouston should score points and stay in the game.  Andre should have a big day since you are allowed to fight and not get suspended.


Buffalo vs. Minnesota
Daugherty - Buffalo +5.5
Buffalo tends to lose, but they almost always cover. Works for me
Karwatt - Buffalo +5.5
Ryan Fitzpatrick is a stud. The Bills should be in the game late, and hopefully they don't choke this one away. They need to let Favre monopolize the choking.


Miami vs. Cleveland
Daugherty - Cleveland +4.5
My man Peyton Hillis continues to murder opposing defenses. The key question is whether Sparano forgets that he has a good running game again. I don't think it matters in the end. 
Karwatt - Miami -4.5
My phins remembered to run the ball with their studs last week, and they ended up dominating the game. Miami's bright spot this year has been that young D-Line so hopefully they can shut down Hillis like they did McFadden. 


Kansas City vs. Denver
Daugherty - K.C. -9
Dwayne Bowe? What a stud. Cassel must have read our inaugural post criticizing his awfulness because he is actually playing well. My favorite Denver story....They traded Peyton Hillis for their current #3 QB
Karwatt - K.C. -9
This is a wacky one.  Denver smashed KC last time they played.  However, since then KC has gotten better and Denver worse.  I don't know how this spread is so high, but I'm still taking KC.  The main reason is that Denver can't video tape the opposing team's practices anymore. Obviously a trick McDaniels learned from New England.


Washington vs. New York Giants
Daugherty - NYG -7
Washington sucks. That's my analysis
Karwatt - Wash +7
I couldn't figure out which way to go with this game, but since Mannings have been throwing a bunch of picks recently, I chose Washington


Green Bay vs. San Francisco
Daugherty - GB -9.5
San Francisco picked Alex Smith over Aaron Rodgers. They deserve to get blown out.
Karwatt - GB -9.5
Aaron Rodgers is the truth. He makes throws as well as anyone, and the drive he led to tie the game last week was awesome. S.F. lost Gore, and with him out, the season is over.


New Orleans vs. Cincinnati
Daugherty - Bengals +7
Solely about the weather. Gonna be freezing with high winds and snow. We'll see how the warm weather southern team handles it.
Karwatt - Saints -7
Carson Palmer is terrible. The Saints aren't as good as last year, but Carson will lose this one like usual.


Tampa Bay vs. Atlanta
Daugherty - TB +3
This line shifted a lot over the past week. I originally was going to go with ATL -1, but 3 is too much. I would bet that this one comes down to the wire.
Karwatt - TB +3
Last time these two teams met, the Bucs were a foot short from beating the dirty birds in the dome.  We all know the Falcons are a different team on the road.  Look for the Bucs to step up with an upset for all their fans to see! Well for some people outside the area to see since the game will be blacked out again.


Seattle vs. Carolina
Daugherty - SEA -6
Seattle isn't that bad. They've actually won a few games. Carolina on the other hand.....
Karwatt - SEA -6
I have picked against Carolina every week and it usually works. They have no QB, and their best player is out. 


St. Louis vs. Arizona
Daugherty - Rams -3.5
I doubted Sam Bradford over Suh, but I was definitely wrong. Bradford is legit.
Karwatt - Rams -3.5

I can hope.

I guess Derek Anderson doesn't think the Cardinals' play is funny, but I sure do.  Sam Bradford is on his way to becoming a superstar. Rams win easily.  The Cardinals will need some huge special teams plays to stay in the game.


Indianapolis vs. Dallas
Daugherty - Indy -5.5
This is a total homer pick. 
Karwatt - Forfeit


Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh
Daugherty Balt -3
Pittsburgh's defense hasn't been as good with the loss of Aaron Smith. Baltimore will be able to take advantage of that by throwing a lot.
Karwatt - Balt -3
The Steelers have been the beneficiaries of a lot of luck this season as well.  They were given 2 games they should have easily lost.  Mia ( Ben's fumble) and last week when Stevie Johnson dropped an easy game winner.  This week that changes. Pitt just doesn't look as impressive as they used to.  An overrated D (much like Baltimore) and their offense is sputtering at times.  Baltimore wins but not because of Flacco, who is another overrated player because his team is good.


New England vs. New York Jets
Daugherty - Jets +3
I'm going out on a limb here. I think the Jets can play enough defense to keep Tom Brady in check, but the key question is whether Sanchize can make enough plays to win. He's been good recently so I'll take the points.
Karwatt - NE -3
The Jets may be the worst 8-2 team in NFL history.  They should be 5-5,and anything that can go right has gone right.  Even though they absolutely dominated the Pats in their last meeting, the Jets are a fake, an average team with an inflated record. 

Since there is no game I really like this week, this will be a lock of the week, not a Locke. 

Daugherty - Seattle -6

What to Make of the Cam Newton Ruling

If you've missed all the background information on the Cam Newton saga, I suggest you check here to get caught up.


The consistent reaction, among those connected to NCAA football, to the Cam Newton story today (Which YouCantPlayHere featured over an hour and a half earlier than ESPN) was one of surprise and confusion. Why would the NCAA rule Cam ineligible on Monday only to have its ruling overturned by the reinstatement committee because of lack of evidence on Wednesday? Why would they release a statement worded so that it made it seem like a temporary eligibility ruling during an ongoing investigation? Why not wait until that investigation was completed? Why admit that a violation of the amateurism rules occurred and then have no punishment?


Most of the answers reside only in the minds of the NCAA officials involved. However, there are a few points to address. 


First, it seems like the NCAA has hedged a good bit with this ruling. They word the announcement to make clear that the investigation into the Cam Newton allegations is ongoing, and that new evidence unearthed by that investigation can negate the ruling that he is eligible. We all know that the NCAA works at a snail's pace when they are investigating allegations against their member schools. Joe Schad stated on the Finebaum radio show that the NCAA investigators had not even finished interviewing all the parties involved yet. Given their past, it would be astonishing if the NCAA was able to finish an investigation within the span of a month, and it is pretty obvious that this case is still ongoing (It even says so in the NCAA press release). 

The most likely reason

Second, the NCAA enforcement division is a separate entity to the reinstatement council. So, in effect, there can be two conflicting decisions. The reinstatement council is basically the appellate wing of the NCAA, and their ruling will stand (Until any new evidence is passed along from the ongoing investigation). 


Third, the most important decision will come from the NCAA enforcement department. This will occur after the season when the investigation is concluded. They will be able to look at the entirety of the case and decide whether Cam has knowingly violated the NCAA's amateurism rules. If they decide that he has, Auburn would be forced to vacate all of the wins he participated in. The NCAA has become famous for these "ineligible after the fact" rulings. 


Lastly, the most important thing to remember in this situation is that the NCAA and the BCS have a huge monetary interest in having Cam Newton eligible and ready to play in the BCS Championship game. The simplest explanation is that the NCAA ruling Cam eligible was a business decision since they knew they could correct it after the season is over. Ruling Cam ineligible after the season is a win win because everyone will have already gotten rich.  


Let's move on to some links and other issues surrounding the whole Cam situation


This story is a must read. Damon Stoudamire was suspended by the NCAA for the actions of his father even though the NCAA admitted there was no evidence Damon knew about those actions. So why is Cam getting off the hook for not supposedly not knowing about what Cecil Newton was asking for? Your guess is as good as mine.


This story from Rivals on Yahoo has some great quotes about the repercussions from today's ruling. 

“The NCAA just gave cover to every middle man in the country,” Vaccaro said. “The kids never know. In all my years, I’ve never heard of a kid being involved in the negotiation. You think they ask? Of course not. Their mom asks. Their coach asks. Their cousin asks. This is crazy.”

“That’s the most messed up ruling I’ve ever heard,” one major college assistant coach said Wednesday. “They can ask every school for money and then someone will bite on it. And then if they get caught for asking they can just say the kid didn’t know.” 

Another interesting point made by Joe Schad on the Finebaum radio show today


This in relation to the article Schad wrote detailing a MSU recruiter's claim that Cam called and apologized for choosing Auburn but that the money was too much. What is different here from the NCAA's precedent in the Stoudamire case? The NCAA was willing to take the word of a disgraced agent, that they were already investigating for separate issues, as their only evidence. If a MSU recruiter actually made that claim, as Schad says, shouldn't that be enough? 


Still left to be explained is how Cam Newton ended up at Auburn if Cecil Newton was orchestrating a pay for play scheme at MSU. Cam made a rushed visit to Auburn and then committed there a few days later at his father's urging. So, are we supposed to believe that Cecil just wanted money from MSU? Would he have really pressed a pay for play scheme on MSU and then quickly decided that Cam should go to Auburn for free?

It just seems like the NCAA has completely gotten lost in its quest to ensure that all of its athletes are amateurs. 


As stated before, a player can be ruled ruled permanently ineligible for taking money to pay for his education (basically a scholarship) from a European basketball team.


The James Paxton story is just another example of the NCAA's ridiculous decision-making. 


Only the NCAA would see the Cam Newton situation as less of a risk to amateur status than getting a scholarship or having a lawyer present at a contract negotiation. 




More Cam Newton Links

http://deadspin.com/5703485/explaining-the-cam-newton-ruling-as-best-we-can

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/news?slug=cr-newton120110

http://thebiglead.com/index.php/2010/12/01/ncaa-declares-cam-newton-eligible-blames-cecil/

Cam Newton Ruled Ineligible and then Eligible

The NCAA has ruled on the Cam Newton situation, and in doing so, continued its reputation of ridiculous rulings. According to the NCAA press release, Cam Newton was ruled ineligible on Monday because of amateurism issues, but was reinstated today. Auburn and the NCAA both agreed that Cam's father and a scouting service attempted to sell him to programs. So how was he reinstated?

Here's the NCAA press release

If the NCAA ruled that he was ineligible because of amateurism issues stemming from his family's attempts to sell him, how did that change two days later? If this ends up standing, the slippery slope has been created. Now parents will be able to try to get schools to pay for a player as long as the player can plausibly deny any knowledge of the payment plan.

Naturally, a player can be ruled permanently ineligible for taking money for education (basically a scholarship) from a European basketball team, but parents are free to attempt to get schools to pay-for-play deals as long as the athlete himself is not aware of it. Which one of these situations is more dangerous to the amateurism the NCAA is looking to protect?

The key part to me is this quote:

Based on the information available to the reinstatement staff at this time, we do not have sufficient evidence that Cam Newton or anyone from Auburn was aware of this activity, which led to his reinstatement.

The NCAA is famous for ruling someone eligible, then later finding them ineligible and causing them to vacate wins (See Derrick Rose at Memphis). It seems like the "at this time" portion of the quote is giving themselves enough room to pull off that same move.

Regardless, the NCAA has blown it again. It's time someone took them to task.